An X-ray of crime in Italy: Trends and projections to 2050

The Italian Ministry of the Interior reported 338 homicides in 2023, marking an 11.5% increase compared to 2022 (322 cases) and breaking the downward trend observed since 2010. Although total homicides have significantly decreased over the past decade (from 552 in 2011 to 338 in 2023), critical patterns persist in family-related violence and femicide. This research analyzes the behavior and trends of homicides in Italy using advanced statistical methods, considering male and female victims and cases committed by family members. The following tests were applied: ANOVA: Significant differences between male and female homicides (p < 0.001). Shapiro-Wilk: Both groups show approximately normal distribution. Pearson correlation: Strong positive relationship (r = 0.83, p < 0.001) between male and female homicides. Linear regression and projection to 2050: Sustained downward trend, although recent upticks are noted. Confidence intervals for future estimates: By 2026: between 420 and 525 cases. By 2050: between 90 and 150 cases, reflecting a decline but not total eradication. Key finding: Femicide remains stable (111–166 cases annually), with more than 65% committed by family members, indicating that gender-based violence does not follow the same downward trend as overall homicides.